Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e3e…e6ba other 243 markets active 9h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%22W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$3
world 20% −$1
politics 17% −$1
crypto 16% −$2
tech 8% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.3% -18.8% 0% 0% -19.1%
≤30d 45 -5.8% -14.8% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 138 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -12.8%
all 243 -3.2% -12.4% 9% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -12.3%
10% -20.8% 0% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 221
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage225d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 02 $1 $0 -43%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. May 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 19 $1 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 33h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 33h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 33h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 40¢ $0 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 6d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 59¢ $0 6d
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? SELL No $0 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $1 6d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 8d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 8d
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 8d
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? SELL No 95¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records