Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e3e…2e90 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 241L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 25% −$25
politics 10% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% −$5
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage132d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $817 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $129 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $298 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $294 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $227 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $420 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $542 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $338 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $332 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $392 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 31m
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 39h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.27 · official $57.27 (match) · 1378 history records