Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e37…69f7 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$7
world 34% −$4
politics 14% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 6% -10.6%
≤90d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 5% -10.8%
all 53 -1.9% -11.2% 40% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.0%
10% -19.7% 4% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 4% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage450d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -14%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $16 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $9 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $16 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $18 −$5 -27%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Apr 01 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13? Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $2 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $13 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $6 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $6 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.23 · official $40.23 (match) · 151 history records