Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e36…f415 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+1%) realized +$149 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%51W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$15
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$32
other 25% +$33
politics 14% +$20
tech 12% +$56
finance 2% $0
world 1% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 49 +0.9% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.8%
all 52 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×12.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×651.78 per $1 lost it wins $651.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses51 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage107d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $255 $257 +$2 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $241 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $128 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $236 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $145 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $136 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 15? Jun 15 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $168 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $71 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $110? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? Jun 12 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 9? Jun 09 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $161 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $269 +$20 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $199 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $387 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $199 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 25 $769 +$20 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $766 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 11-17? May 18 $759 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 11? May 11 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 11? May 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $2.50? May 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $7.50? May 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 4 above $230? May 08 $155 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 4 above $225? May 08 $255 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 April 27-May 3? May 06 $758 +$4 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in April? May 01 $747 +$13 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 20 above $420? Apr 25 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $8.50? Apr 25 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Apr 25 $322 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.65 on April 21? Apr 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 21 $721 +$15 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 13-19? Apr 20 $230 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 19 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $3.50? Apr 18 $714 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Apr 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 15 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 13? Apr 14 $711 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 10? Apr 11 $709 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 07 $708 +$3 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 20 $693 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $79 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $118 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $237 2d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? BUY No 98¢ $213 2d
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 5d
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $71 8d
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $104 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $212 9d
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.60 · official $827.60 (match) · 155 history records