Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5e34…530e crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$61 (+13%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 70L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$50
other 9% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -24.0% -31.2% 23% 23% -13.7%
≤30d 26 -24.0% -31.2% 23% 23% -13.7%
≤90d 108 +14.3% +3.4% 35% 34% +0.6%
all 108 +14.3% +3.4% 35% 34% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 34% +0.6%
10% -6.5% 34% -9.1%
15% -15.5% 31% -17.8%
20% -23.8% 29% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$32 +603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$9 +412%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$2 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$15 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$5 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 17 $1 +$4 +448%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 17 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$37 +742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records