Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5E 0x5e33…8732 crypto 1564 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$538 (-3%) realized −$517 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%999W / 564L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$20
14 days+$40
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$788
sports 0% −$4
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -18.2% -26.0% 49% 24% -11.6%
≤30d 723 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 52% -10.9%
≤90d 1563 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 40% -14.0%
all 1563 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 40% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -22.2%
15% -25.6% 15% -29.7%
20% -32.9% 11% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$517
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses999 / 564
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1563 / 1564
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 85¢ 50¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$67 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$32 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.39 · official $29.39 (match) · 3500 history records