Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e30…1ebd crypto 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,064 (+11%) realized +$7,191 · open −$2,127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%57W / 122L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$2,396
14 days−$2,828
30 days+$18,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$14,367
crypto 37% −$9,690
politics 7% +$1,796
tech 3% −$3
other 3% −$549
weather 2% +$60
economics 1% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -14.8% -22.9% 38% 29% -47.2%
≤30d 128 +4.1% -5.8% 38% 34% +50.2%
≤90d 133 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 33% +49.8%
all 179 -15.1% -23.2% 32% 27% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 27% -12.0%
10% -30.6% 23% -20.4%
15% -37.3% 20% -28.1%
20% -43.4% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$170 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1,250
Realized+$7,191
Unrealized−$2,127
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses57 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)179 / 181
History coverage235d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,859 $691 −$1,168 (-63%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,517 $559 −$959 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $84 −$52 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $886 −$125 -14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $381 −$351 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $62 −$36 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $51 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$15 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $93 −$17 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $103 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $108 −$46 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $123 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $128 +$19 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $68 −$66 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $52 +$82 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$72 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 10 $51 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $39 −$30 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $2,429 −$1,787 -74%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $97 −$39 -40%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $398 −$16 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1,000 −$200 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $70 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $84 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $174 +$40 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $67 +$31 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$6 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$5 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$38 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$11 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$8 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $147 13m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 50m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 50m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 51m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $56 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $43 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 15h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 16h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 1¢ $8 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 1¢ $24 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 2¢ $30 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 4¢ $54 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $418 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,249.67 · official $1,249.67 (match) · 743 history records