Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e30…acbf sports 1172 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (340 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96,267 (+31%) realized +$96,119 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%574W / 439L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day340.2pace
Fees−$2,534est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,145
7 days+$13,183
14 days+$50,274
30 days+$50,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$82,822
other 25% +$20,962
world 0% +$925
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (340 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 903 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 46% -4.5%
≤30d 1013 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 50% +8.3%
≤90d 1013 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 50% +8.3%
all 1013 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 50% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover340.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 50% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 45% -2.0%
15% -23.1% 42% -11.5%
20% -30.6% 34% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$149 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$32,020
Realized+$96,119
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses574 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,534
Open positions134
Markets (closed)1013 / 1172
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$269
Trades / day340.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 134 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,580 $2,618 +$38 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 86¢ $2,000 $2,024 +$24 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,677 $1,685 +$8 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,556 $1,577 +$21 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,496 $1,537 +$41 (+3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,500 $1,513 +$13 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 71¢ 72¢ $1,400 $1,410 +$10 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,250 $1,271 +$21 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 84¢ $1,157 $1,178 +$21 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,121 $1,135 +$14 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 55¢ $1,050 $970 −$80 (-8%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 90¢ $897 $923 +$25 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $700 $693 −$7 (-1%)
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Julia Stusek 95¢ 94¢ $375 $373 −$2 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 90¢ $375 $373 −$2 (-1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Ekaterina Yashina 95¢ 94¢ $374 $371 −$3 (-1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 94¢ 94¢ $350 $348 −$2 (-1%)
ITF Mohammedia: Fanny Pire vs Ruth Roura Llaverias Ruth Roura Llaverias 97¢ 95¢ $350 $344 −$6 (-2%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 93¢ 94¢ $333 $336 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 87¢ 90¢ $312 $321 +$9 (+3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 37¢ $400 $296 −$104 (-26%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 90¢ $262 $276 +$14 (+5%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 69¢ 72¢ $262 $272 +$10 (+4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 75¢ 78¢ $262 $271 +$9 (+3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 90¢ 92¢ $252 $255 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Vithoontien vs Biryukov Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 17 $525 −$525 -100%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Mert Alkaya Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Galfi (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Baez vs. Busta: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 17 $355 −$355 -100%
Tsitsipas vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Brunclik vs. Faria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Nakashima (+2.5) Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Modern SC win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $437 −$437 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Oliynykova Jun 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Sakkari vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 125.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Trungelliti vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Mrva vs. Coppejans: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Pelicans vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Rangers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $630 −$630 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 17 $1,036 −$1,036 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-14.5) Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 Jun 17 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Set Handicap: Cristian (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Australian Open Men's: James Duckworth vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $580 −$580 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Liliya Piskun BUY Adelina Lachinova 89¢ $9 0m
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Liliya Piskun BUY Adelina Lachinova 89¢ $9 0m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 92¢ $51 3m
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 64¢ $60 7m
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Barton BUY Acosta 58¢ $6 7m
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Barton BUY Acosta 58¢ $6 7m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 63¢ $110 7m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $98 9m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $51 10m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $123 10m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 41¢ $87 10m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $8 10m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $43 10m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $344 10m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $81 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $31 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $34 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $71 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $12 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $18 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $226 11m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $299 12m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 12m
ITF Monastir: Anas Bennour Dit Sahli vs Ergi Kirkin BUY Ergi Kirkin 92¢ $12 13m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sara Kastakova vs Marie Mettraux BUY Marie Mettraux 94¢ $5 14m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 94¢ $350 15m
Sagandikova vs. Ivanovic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 20m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 51¢ $125 22m
Set 1 Winner: Zelinskaya vs Luo BUY Zelinskaya 50¢ $10 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,020.21 · official $32,018.08 (match) · 3500 history records