Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e2a…4fd0 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$211 (-7%) realized −$234 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$557
7 days−$208
14 days−$238
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.7% -5.2% 29% 29% -17.5%
≤30d 24 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 21% -17.8%
≤90d 24 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 21% -17.8%
all 24 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 21% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 21% -17.8%
10% -21.7% 17% -25.7%
15% -29.3% 12% -32.8%
20% -36.2% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$56 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 52¢ $421 $442 +$21 (+5%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 42¢ 44¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $103 +$92 +90%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $144 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $227 +$44 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $189 +$535 +282%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $374 −$370 -99%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $156 −$5 -3%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $104 +$28 +27%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $24 +$80 +325%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $124 −$122 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $130 −$129 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $122 −$46 -38%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $122 −$7 -6%
Harriet Dart vs. Belinda Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $259 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $166 −$163 -99%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 09 $120 −$6 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $18 −$16 -89%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Helena Stevic vs Mariya Yemshanova Jun 09 $6 −$4 -71%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch Jun 07 $43 −$1 -3%
Bratislava: Alex Molcan vs Petr Brunclik Jun 07 $47 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 49¢ $13 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $441 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $29 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $50 5h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $1 22h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $9 23h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Hive 49¢ $111 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Hive 49¢ $3 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Hive 50¢ $14 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL Hive 50¢ $4 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 54¢ $68 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 52¢ $5 29h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 52¢ $70 29h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $103 31h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $9 43h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Team Nemesis 84¢ $93 43h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $125 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $189 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $149 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $219 2d
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Iva Jovic 51¢ $79 2d
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Iva Jovic 51¢ $77 2d
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $103 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 78¢ $104 4d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) BUY Ilbirs eSports 23¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $124 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 64¢ $130 4d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) BUY Ilbirs eSports 23¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.49 · official $530.49 (match) · 71 history records