Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e24…4ae1 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%46W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$318
sports 6% +$33
other 3% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +18.3% +7.0% 67% 65% -12.4%
≤30d 69 +18.3% +7.0% 67% 65% -12.4%
≤90d 69 +18.3% +7.0% 67% 65% -12.4%
all 69 +18.3% +7.0% 67% 65% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.0% 65% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 51% -20.8%
15% -12.6% 41% -28.5%
20% -21.2% 22% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$57 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses46 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$37 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $61 −$53 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$29 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $205 −$199 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $355 +$98 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $409 −$409 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $231 −$22 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $151 −$30 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $355 −$103 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $152 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $153 +$58 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$30 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.76 · official $29.76 (match) · 232 history records