Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5e24…3474 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$119 (+51%) realized +$84 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$172
other 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.6% +6.4% 50% 50% +77.9%
≤30d 4 +17.6% +6.4% 50% 50% +77.9%
≤90d 4 +17.6% +6.4% 50% 50% +77.9%
all 4 +17.6% +6.4% 50% 50% +77.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 50% +77.9%
10% -3.8% 50% +60.8%
15% -13.1% 50% +45.3%
20% -21.6% 50% +31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$10 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.88 per $1 lost it wins $6.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $110 $145 +$35 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $112 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.67 · official $144.67 (match) · 7 history records