Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e21…a7c2 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$4 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day54.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$45
sports 9% +$38
world 4% −$10
other 2% −$5
weather 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +15.2% +4.2% 51% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 53 +15.2% +4.2% 51% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 53 +15.2% +4.2% 51% 47% -14.5%
all 53 +15.2% +4.2% 51% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 47% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -22.7%
15% -14.8% 30% -30.2%
20% -23.2% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day54.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France to score first vs. Senegal? Yes 72¢ 53¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $4 +$8 +188%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 54m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 117 history records