Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e19…d917 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-5%) realized −$190 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%43W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$63
14 days+$34
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$185
tech 32% +$13
other 28% +$38
crypto 1% +$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 59% -3.6%
≤30d 40 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 52% -8.7%
≤90d 67 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 46% -14.7%
all 69 -10.3% -18.9% 62% 45% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 45% -14.7%
10% -26.6% 35% -22.9%
15% -33.7% 23% -30.4%
20% -40.2% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses43 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage103d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $211 $217 +$6 (+3%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $212 $211 −$1 (-1%)
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? No 92¢ 93¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $100 $108 +$7 (+7%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $103 $96 −$7 (-7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$29 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$27 +30%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$24 +97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$10 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 05 $22 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $106 −$106 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $58 +$30 +51%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5 May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $101 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $102 +$53 +52%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? May 09 $101 −$12 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 07 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ May 04 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $29 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 89¢ $100 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 88¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 14h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $25 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $50 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $50 30h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 39¢ $106 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $50 33h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $25 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $1 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $25 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $50 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $61 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.11 · official $786.37 · 217 history records