Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e18…bf56 crypto 868 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$257 (-2%) realized −$261 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%794W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day84.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$116
14 days−$280
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$209
weather 3% −$3
sports 3% −$38
politics 2% −$8
world 2% +$5
other 1% +$2
tech 1% −$29
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 2% -10.7%
≤30d 867 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 1% -11.1%
≤90d 867 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 1% -11.1%
all 867 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 1% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -19.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses794 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)867 / 868
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day84.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 867 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $103 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $86 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $89 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $102 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $86 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $91 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $95 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $95 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $95 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $94 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $75 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $89 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $101 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $99 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $98 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $93 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $93 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $98 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.31 · official $103.10 · 1840 history records