Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e18…fea6 crypto 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-5%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%251W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$92
sports 6% −$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 30% -34.2%
≤30d 81 -25.6% -32.6% 47% 35% -20.9%
≤90d 240 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 40% -16.1%
all 430 -11.5% -19.9% 58% 37% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -14.8%
10% -27.6% 27% -22.9%
15% -34.6% 20% -30.4%
20% -41.0% 15% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses251 / 179
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)430 / 431
History coverage148d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 33¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 59m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 12h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.80 (match) · 1051 history records