Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e16…41f8 other 1254 markets active 1h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$710 (-9%) realized −$708 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%542W / 705L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$361
sports 48% −$338
crypto 3% −$38
world 1% +$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 43% -1.1%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 239 -17.6% -25.5% 36% 33% -19.6%
all 1247 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 43% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 43% -18.3%
10% -23.4% 41% -26.1%
15% -30.8% 39% -33.2%
20% -37.6% 35% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$708
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses542 / 705
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1247 / 1254
History coverage354d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 37¢ 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3 +$3 +89%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +206%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -75%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Marin Cilic vs Alexander Shevchenko Apr 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi Apr 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Wuning: Clement Chidekh vs Yuki Mochizuki Apr 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao Apr 07 $40 −$21 -51%
Wuning: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Omar Jasika Apr 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Wuning: Jie Cui vs August Holmgren Apr 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Iryna Shymanovich vs Donna V Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 06 $30 +$8 +28%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Emilio Nava Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anh Apr 06 $10 +$8 +82%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Adrian Mannarino Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Apr 06 $3 +$1 +44%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Dominika S Apr 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Tamara Korpatsch vs Maria Ti Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $3 +$6 +186%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Marton Fucsovics vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $3 +$3 +86%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Marco Trungelliti vs Rafael Jodar Apr 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Moise Kouame vs Ugo Humbert Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 05 $7 +$1 +18%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Robe Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: David Goffin vs Emilio Nava Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Fran BUY 43¢ $3 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France BUY 48¢ $3 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 24h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $3 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $3 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 52¢ $3 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 11¢ $3 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 10¢ $1 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 63¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 27¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 100¢ $4 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 53¢ $2 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 43¢ $2 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 21¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 45¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.93 · official $7.00 · 2617 history records