Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e13…cbff sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-4%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$463per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$66
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 57% −$5
sports 27% +$734
other 14% −$999
crypto 1% −$73
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-71.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 24 -86.9% -88.2% 12% 0% -65.8%
≤90d 24 -86.9% -88.2% 12% 0% -65.8%
all 32 -68.8% -71.7% 19% 9% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.7% 9% -14.5%
10% -74.5% 9% -22.7%
15% -76.9% 9% -30.2%
20% -79.2% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$54 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 16
History coverage252d
Avg bet$463
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Ecuador 92¢ 93¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $30 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Oksana Selekhmeteva May 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $400 +$225 +56%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $256 +$193 +75%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 03 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S Feb 13 $1,067 +$574 +54%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 17 $2,108 −$2 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $2,110 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.79 · official $54.79 (match) · 27 history records