Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e11…9f74 sports 843 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$694 (-1%) realized −$674 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%724W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$117
14 days−$272
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$780
other 7% −$138
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.4% -21.7% 76% 21% -17.2%
≤30d 298 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 19% -11.1%
≤90d 842 -2.2% -11.5% 86% 20% -11.3%
all 842 -2.2% -11.5% 86% 20% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 20% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 7% -19.8%
15% -27.7% 3% -27.5%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses724 / 118
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)842 / 843
History coverage68d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 842 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Monaco 66¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $20 +$20 +100%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $70 +$1 +2%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $60 +$13 +21%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $40 +$11 +27%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $40 +$9 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Juventus Utena Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $60 +$13 +22%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $60 +$4 +7%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs John Echeverria Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $40 +$2 +6%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama Jun 12 $70 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen SELL Alba Berlin 100¢ $51 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 98¢ $50 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 87¢ $30 2h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Monaco 66¢ $20 2h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $102 2h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 99¢ $70 3h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $41 3h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 96¢ $30 3h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $20 3h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 99¢ $30 2d
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 78¢ $40 2d
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi SELL Julia Stusek 99¢ $20 2d
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 99¢ $20 2d
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh SELL Chan-Yeong Oh 100¢ $42 2d
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Chan-Yeong Oh 95¢ $40 2d
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani SELL Eri Shimizu 99¢ $51 2d
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani BUY Eri Shimizu 98¢ $50 2d
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 100¢ $61 3d
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 99¢ $60 3d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $45 3d
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 56¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 89¢ $40 3d
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $50 3d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $33 3d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Gustavo Heide 99¢ $13 3d
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 100¢ $50 3d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Gustavo Heide 100¢ $20 3d
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Raffaele Ciurnelli 86¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 1734 history records