Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e0e…7445 crypto 1066 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,239 (-14%) realized −$2,244 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%611W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.7% +18.2% 92% 77% +16.9%
≤30d 176 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 57% +4.8%
≤90d 1065 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 46% -7.9%
all 1065 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 46% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 46% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 35% -16.7%
15% -31.0% 23% -24.8%
20% -37.8% 14% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,244
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses611 / 454
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1065 / 1066
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1065 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 0¢ 60¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $220 +$109 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $609 +$94 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $446 +$93 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $284 +$147 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $143 +$73 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $264 +$107 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $300 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $166 +$90 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $176 +$40 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $329 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $43 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $63 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.17 (match) · 3500 history records