Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e0a…9ed3 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-15%) realized −$337 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%36W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$198
14 days−$210
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$156
sports 19% −$140
crypto 12% +$24
world 3% +$13
politics 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.6% -10.9% 51% 43% -27.5%
≤30d 39 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 38% -28.4%
≤90d 48 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 38% -28.5%
all 110 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 30% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 30% -32.2%
10% -35.7% 25% -38.6%
15% -41.9% 21% -44.6%
20% -47.6% 17% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized−$337
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses36 / 74
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)110 / 121
History coverage599d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $173 $223 +$50 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $155 $165 +$10 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $23 $34 +$11 (+47%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$25 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$11 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$54 -90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $64 +$28 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$26 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 +$27 +60%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 +$4 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $166 −$155 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $129 +$46 +36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -97%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $2 +$4 +186%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 20 $2 +$4 +203%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $3 +$4 +144%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 18 $1 +$2 +150%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Feb 18 $1 +$3 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 39m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $47 40m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $54 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 17h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $92 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $61 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $59 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.10 · official $559.10 (match) · 223 history records