Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5E 0x5e0a…2d9b crypto 1153 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,223 (+8%) realized +$1,221 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%584W / 525L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$344
14 days+$349
30 days+$911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,540
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 +0.1% -9.4% 53% 53% +6.6%
≤30d 745 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 52% +2.7%
≤90d 1109 -0.5% -9.9% 53% 53% +0.0%
all 1109 -0.5% -9.9% 53% 53% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 53% +0.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 53% -9.6%
15% -26.4% 53% -18.3%
20% -33.6% 53% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1,221
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses584 / 525
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1109 / 1153
History coverage56d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 64¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Down 52¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 52¢ 44¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$42 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $211 +$180 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$11 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$25 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$84 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$61 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$51 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $44 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $108 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $106 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.60 (match) · 2183 history records