Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5E 0x5e07…2f7e other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$18 (+20%) realized +$12 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate18%4W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day68.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit66%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-29.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-21.8%	-29.3%	18%	18%	-19.5%
≤30d	22	-21.8%	-29.3%	18%	18%	-19.5%
≤90d	22	-21.8%	-29.3%	18%	18%	-19.5%
all	22	-21.8%	-29.3%	18%	18%	-19.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover68.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-29.3%	18%	-19.5%
10% ← realistic here	-36.1%	18%	-27.2%
15%	-42.2%	14%	-34.3%
20%	-47.9%	9%	-40.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -59% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses4 / 18

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions9

Markets (closed)22 / 35

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day68.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran?	Yes	32¢	100¢	$4	$11	+$7 (+212%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$2	$1	−$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	$0	-9%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$3	$0	-9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first?	Jun 16	$2	$0	-21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	$0	-5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	$0	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	$0	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$13	+$5	+37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4	+$1	+32%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay?	Jun 15	$2	+$5	+307%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$3	+$9	+344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	38m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	10¢	$2	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$1	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$1	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$1	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$1	53m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$2	53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first?	SELL Yes	10¢	$2	55m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$1	55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$2	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$1	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	52¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$2	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$3	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.00 · official $24.00 · 70 history records