Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e06…9754
weather · 413 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$527 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$522 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$522
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses82 / 329
Open positions2
Markets (closed)411 / 413
History coverage71d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 411 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$348
14 days−$741
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $156 −$138 -89%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$9 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$11 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $75 +$32 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$18 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$15 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 55% −$9
crypto 26% −$642
world 16% +$257
tech 2% −$144
politics 1% +$11
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 4¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 8¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $66 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -21.1% -28.6% 16% 12% -42.5%
≤30d 236 -9.9% -18.5% 20% 18% -22.7%
≤90d 411 -14.7% -22.8% 20% 17% -22.1%
all 411 -14.7% -22.8% 20% 17% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 17% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 13% -29.5%
15% -36.9% 11% -36.3%
20% -43.1% 10% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.77 · official $7.77 (match) · 1698 history records