Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e04…864c other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (2835 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized +$141 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,201per market
Trades / day2834.6pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$17
politics 36% +$4
world 10% +$88
economics 1% +$29
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2835 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 6% -9.2%
≤30d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 6% -9.2%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2834.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 3% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$736) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
41.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$1 · ×24.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.35 per $1 lost it wins $7.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,201
Trades / day2834.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $186 $184 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $1,167 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $736 +$15 +2%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $260 +$29 +11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $798 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $248 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $18,326 −$10 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1,970 +$31 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,530 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $234 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 $0 -1%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $357 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$29 +47%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16,728 −$10 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,247 +$29 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,034 +$30 +3%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 0m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 7m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 10m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 16m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 16m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 19m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.73 · official $536.31 (match) · 3500 history records