Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e03…ceab world 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 68L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$11
other 22% $0
politics 15% +$8
sports 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 35 +1.7% -8.0% 31% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 76 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 3% -9.2%
all 103 +1.2% -8.4% 34% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage259d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $43 +$9 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $102 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $2 $0 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $5 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $36 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $41 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $44 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records