Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5e03…04c6 other 68 markets active 5h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$272 (+8%) realized +$242 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$39
sports 11% +$125
world 8% +$32
other 8% +$95
weather 0% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -84.3% -85.8% 4% 4% -80.4%
≤30d 27 -14.2% -22.4% 15% 11% -12.5%
≤90d 50 +48.3% +34.2% 38% 26% -6.8%
all 65 +63.1% +47.6% 51% 37% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.6% 37% -3.0%
10% +33.4% 31% -12.2%
15% +20.6% 26% -20.7%
20% +8.7% 25% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +111% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage105d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 54¢ 78¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+47%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026 Jun 15 $5 +$13 +261%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 2 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $587 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $2 +$23 +1095%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$1 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 30 $535 +$65 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 10 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $219 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $280 +$20 +7%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 30 $1 +$10 +966%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $594 +$6 +1%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 27 $22 +$12 +56%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Mar 27 $1 +$25 +2490%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Mar 25 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 25 $94 −$63 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 24 $147 +$28 +19%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $3 +$7 +212%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 23 $14 +$6 +45%
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31? Mar 22 $17 +$16 +94%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-7.5) Mar 20 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 19 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 21¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026 BUY 27¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $20 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 17¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 17d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 30d
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $587 33d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $1 36d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 10? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 83¢ $5 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $599 47d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 2 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 88¢ $352 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 91¢ $125 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 91¢ $58 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY No 10¢ $3 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 93¢ $280 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.84 · official $91.85 · 168 history records