Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e02…b178 other 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,719 (+13%) realized +$7,459 · open −$740
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%115W / 600L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day107.6pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,282
7 days−$2,439
14 days−$3,145
30 days−$1,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1,743
sports 10% +$335
politics 8% −$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -46.4% -51.5% 13% 10% -31.0%
≤30d 715 -36.2% -42.3% 16% 13% -20.1%
≤90d 715 -36.2% -42.3% 16% 13% -20.1%
all 715 -36.2% -42.3% 16% 13% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 13% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 12% -27.7%
15% -52.9% 9% -34.7%
20% -57.5% 8% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$13 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$3,599
Realized+$7,459
Unrealized−$740
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses115 / 600
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions91
Markets (closed)715 / 521
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day107.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 87¢ 99¢ $676 $764 +$88 (+13%)
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $668 $751 +$83 (+12%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $32 $449 +$417 (+1298%)
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $267 $337 +$70 (+26%)
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 72¢ 88¢ $126 $154 +$27 (+22%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $36 $104 +$68 (+190%)
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $36 $92 +$56 (+154%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 80¢ 75¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $30 $68 +$38 (+130%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $30 $67 +$37 (+124%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $17 $57 +$40 (+233%)
Will Wyndham Clark shoot the best round at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 56¢ $89 $54 −$36 (-40%)
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $44 +$8 (+21%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 29¢ 28¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $41 +$14 (+54%)
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 64¢ 34¢ $74 $39 −$36 (-48%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $35 +$14 (+63%)
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-15%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+9%)
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 73¢ 40¢ $56 $31 −$26 (-46%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 79¢ 70¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $34 $21 −$14 (-40%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 66¢ 48¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will Joaquin Niemann finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 91¢ 99¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 409 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Lisa Pigato vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $22 +$85 +381%
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Laslo Djere Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ostrava: Rudolf Molleker vs Henri Squire Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Huzhou: Rada Zolotareva vs Despina Papamichail Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Diletta Cherubini vs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazzaville: Florent Bax vs Adrian Arcon Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 21 $25 +$6 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yu Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Shymkent 2: Vladyslav Orlov vs Mili Poljicak Jun 21 $12 −$9 -73%
Will Henry Lebioda win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Steven Fisk win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Calvin Hemery Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Jiujiang: Tung-Lin Wu vs Rigele Te Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bud Cauley finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Lucie Havlickov Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bordeaux: Moise Kouame vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Mauthausen: Francesco Maestrelli vs Miguel Damas Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Francavilla: Toby Samuel vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $3 26m
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 29¢ $28 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 30¢ $9 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open SELL Yes 87¢ $38 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY Yes 81¢ $16 1h
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY Yes 78¢ $690 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 34¢ $13 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 34¢ $17 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 36¢ $18 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 42¢ $30 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 42¢ $30 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 53¢ $2 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 53¢ $5 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 47¢ $88 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 47¢ $24 2h
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $30 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 52¢ $26 2h
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 93¢ $30 2h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 98¢ $13 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 67¢ $0 3h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 93¢ $30 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 67¢ $12 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 67¢ $10 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 67¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,598.85 · official $3,598.87 (match) · 3500 history records