Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5df7…780d crypto 886 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,905 (-5%) realized −$5,601 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%368W / 497L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$62
14 days+$34
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3,276
sports 23% −$143
crypto 14% −$3,798
other 11% +$629
politics 5% −$1,194
tech 3% +$994
economics 1% +$254
finance 0% −$46
weather 0% −$7
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -17.8% -25.6% 45% 41% -7.3%
≤30d 133 -15.3% -23.4% 44% 35% -7.3%
≤90d 658 -28.2% -35.0% 37% 29% -18.9%
all 865 -17.1% -25.0% 43% 33% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 33% -14.2%
10% -32.2% 27% -22.4%
15% -38.8% 21% -29.9%
20% -44.8% 15% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$52 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$5,601
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses368 / 497
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions20
Markets (closed)865 / 886
History coverage147d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 865 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 36¢ 72¢ $77 $153 +$76 (+99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $120 $132 +$12 (+10%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+185%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 55¢ 65¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 67¢ 65¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $58 $9 −$49 (-84%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-78%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 81¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $27 −$18 -68%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $140 −$15 -11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$43 +53%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$16 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$23 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$27 -87%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$5 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$33 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$43 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$25 +62%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +94%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $34 +$7 +20%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Jun 14 $96 +$216 +226%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $30 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 8h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $20 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $4 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 30¢ $9 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 33¢ $10 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $124 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 13h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 76¢ $9 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $52 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.84 · official $440.29 (match) · 2747 history records