Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5df2…7669 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+8%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 25% +$62
weather 8% −$1
crypto 8% +$3
politics 6% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 11 -12.4% -20.7% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -12.4% -20.7% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 27 +70.2% +54.0% 41% 7% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.0% 7% -6.4%
10% +39.3% 4% -15.3%
15% +25.8% 4% -23.5%
20% +13.5% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +156% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.38 per $1 lost it wins $12.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage481d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $62 +$3 +6%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $1 +$61 +5782%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? Mar 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 28 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $38 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $44 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $6 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $38 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $8 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $19 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $22 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $41 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $39 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records