trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 0% | 0% | -14.8% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -12.4% | -20.7% | 9% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -12.4% | -20.7% | 9% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | +70.2% | +54.0% | 41% | 7% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +54.0% | 7% | -6.4% |
| 10% | +39.3% | 4% | -15.3% |
| 15% | +25.8% | 4% | -23.5% |
| 20% | +13.5% | 4% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 96¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 24 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $7 | −$2 | -28% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 15 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $85 | +$4 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $48 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 09 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $3 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $6 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Mar 31 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 31 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? | Mar 31 | $65 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 30 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $62 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 23 | $1 | +$61 | +5782% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 22 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? | Mar 21 | $15 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or | Feb 28 | $14 | $0 | -0% |