Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5def…86f5 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-13%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%95W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$25
sports 25% −$13
other 14% −$5
finance 5% +$1
world 4% −$16
tech 3% +$1
economics 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -16.3% -24.2% 46% 30% -23.9%
≤30d 63 -16.3% -24.2% 46% 30% -23.9%
≤90d 73 -20.3% -27.9% 44% 29% -29.3%
all 187 -12.5% -20.8% 51% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -20.8%
10% -28.4% 28% -28.4%
15% -35.3% 23% -35.3%
20% -41.6% 18% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses95 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage207d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +125%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -87%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.38 · official $3.38 (match) · 460 history records