Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5D 0x5def…1283 weather 1273 markets active 4h ago coverage 221d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$84 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%1119W / 110L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 221d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$2,625
other 33% +$130
crypto 5% +$60
politics 5% −$84
tech 3% −$110
world 3% +$1
culture 1% +$24
economics 1% +$37
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 452 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 1151 +1.2% -8.4% 93% 1% -13.8%
all 1229 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 3% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -20.2%
10% -17.6% 2% -27.8%
15% -25.6% 1% -34.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$38 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$1,566
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1119 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1229 / 1273
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,343 $1,359 +$16 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on June 27? No 32¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C or higher on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 108°F or higher on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 2 Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Jun Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 73°F or below on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 2 Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 23? Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on June 22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 64¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 2 BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 108°F or higher on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on June BUY No 32¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $989 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $158 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,565.52 · official $1,565.11 (match) · 3500 history records