Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5ded…3231
other · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage611d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 18 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $39 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $28 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $39 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $254 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,827 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,400 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $939 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 87% −$15
other 8% +$2
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $11 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 83¢ $14 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $43 26d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $43 26d
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 61¢ $9 31d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 33d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 34d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 49¢ $5 35d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 37d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 15% -5.2%
≤90d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 21% 7% -9.2%
all 39 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.39 · official $10.39 (match) · 278 history records