Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5deb…ccdd sports 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,257 (-17%) realized −$4,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%52W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,678
7 days−$2,146
14 days−$2,146
30 days−$2,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$693
other 24% −$606
sports 20% −$1,807
finance 8% −$60
tech 6% −$70
politics 5% −$57
culture 2% −$50
crypto 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -23.9% -31.1% 26% 21% -38.9%
≤30d 147 -23.9% -31.1% 26% 21% -38.9%
≤90d 273 -15.0% -23.1% 19% 13% -21.5%
all 273 -15.0% -23.1% 19% 13% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 13% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 12% -29.0%
15% -37.2% 10% -35.9%
20% -43.3% 9% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses52 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 273
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $104 −$74 -71%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $276 −$4 -1%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $170 −$5 -3%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $96 −$8 -9%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $79 −$19 -24%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $196 +$20 +10%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $95 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 -10%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 -8%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $26 −$6 -23%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $60 −$50 -84%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $16 −$6 -38%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $45 −$15 -33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $86 −$46 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $49 −$12 -23%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $44 −$4 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 −$25 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 −$36 -42%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $42 −$2 -5%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $114 −$4 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 −$11 -8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $57 −$42 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $180 +$11 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $42 −$32 -76%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $43 +$7 +16%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -93%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $40 +$10 +24%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $34 +$46 +138%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $6 $0 -2%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$8 -54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $127 −$88 -70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 −$13 -78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1 40m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 40m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $1 50m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 50m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 50m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 50m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 51m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 58m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $1 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $10 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 66¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $39 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 77¢ $46 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records