Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5D 0x5deb…d24c other 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized +$214 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%70W / 74L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$42
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$103
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +55.2% +40.4% 7% 7% +5.1%
≤30d 24 +38.2% +25.0% 29% 17% -0.5%
≤90d 58 +52.5% +38.0% 52% 34% -6.9%
all 144 +48.7% +34.5% 49% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.5% 33% -9.3%
10% +21.6% 22% -18.0%
15% +9.9% 18% -25.9%
20% -0.9% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses70 / 74
Open positions11
Markets (closed)144 / 134
History coverage143d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 +$82 +2290%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $47 −$6 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 16 $16 +$17 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $95 −$64 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $18 −$9 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 09 $55 +$23 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 05 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 02 $50 +$30 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 01 $1 +$3 +293%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 30 $24 +$17 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 27 $122 +$9 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $130 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $111 +$13 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $86 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 24m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $86 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 46h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $53 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $56 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 455 history records