Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de9…3b6c politics 38 markets active 3d ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$1
world 26% $0
other 19% −$9
sports 15% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage264d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $46 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 17 $17 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $12 −$9 -72%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $27 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $4 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $27 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 8d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 241d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 241d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $18 243d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $18 243d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $17 244d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records