Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de9…9f4b crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$38
other 26% +$22
sports 9% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 52% -13.6%
≤30d 44 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 52% -13.6%
≤90d 44 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 52% -13.6%
all 44 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 52% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.0% 52% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here +4.9% 41% -21.8%
15% -5.2% 32% -29.4%
20% -14.5% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$39 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $87 −$72 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$1 +3%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.15 · official $15.15 (match) · 184 history records