Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5D 0x5de9…10fd other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 49L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
politics 17% −$16
other 13% +$15
sports 2% +$92
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.4% -1.0% 25% 12% -7.4%
≤30d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 10% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 55 +14.7% +3.8% 29% 22% -7.4%
all 69 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 17% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 17% -9.2%
10% -8.7% 17% -17.9%
15% -17.5% 16% -25.8%
20% -25.6% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage613d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $66 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $14 +$10 +76%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $298 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $288 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $149 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $41 +$2 +6%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $14 +$10 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$16 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$8 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $8 +$6 +75%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $9 +$5 +64%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 23m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $14 26h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $63 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $21 10d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.43 · official $129.43 (match) · 320 history records