Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de7…5417 sports 1782 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$413 (-0%) realized −$367 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%775W / 1074L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$1,797est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$212
other 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -90.5% -91.4% 4% 4% -77.9%
≤30d 445 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 35% -11.5%
≤90d 1726 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 40% -12.3%
all 1849 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 41% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 39% -20.2%
15% -31.1% 35% -27.9%
20% -37.8% 32% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$62 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses775 / 1074
Est. fees paid−$1,797
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1849 / 1782
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 39¢ 70¢ $70 $127 +$57 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 56¢ 10¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 47¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$29 -200%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $16 −$32 -200%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $66 −$132 -200%
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Jun 19 $34 −$68 -200%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 19 $32 −$64 -200%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Imperial - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$60 -200%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Ursa (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qual Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 165.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Cl Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5) Jun 19 $58 −$116 -200%
SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $60 −$120 -200%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$20 -200%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs SINQU (+1.5) Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sakura Esports vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: Nort Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs mindshock (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs VP.Prodigy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs los kogutos (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Map Handicap: PLS (-1.5) vs Damajuana (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs Lenovo Legion Honvéd - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 55¢ $136 19m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $142 20m
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs FORZE Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F SELL Hermine Esports Club 50¢ $148 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 100¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $370 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 39¢ $71 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 23¢ $28 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs FORZE Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 50¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Hermine Esports Club 24¢ $44 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 27¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $109 4h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 46¢ $23 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $17 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $137 6h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner SELL EAC Rising 31¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner SELL EAC Rising 31¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY EAC Rising 31¢ $50 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner BUY Wanted Goons 46¢ $97 6d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY Washed 70¢ $107 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 46¢ $117 7d
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Gatorian 21¢ $28 7d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O BUY Modo Serio 19¢ $48 7d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 51¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 43¢ $94 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 43¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 41¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.45 · official $136.45 (match) · 3500 history records