Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de7…540c world 456 markets active 0h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,238 (-4%) realized −$1,631 · open −$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%246W / 168L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days−$52
14 days−$462
30 days−$930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$504
other 19% −$97
sports 14% −$1,464
tech 6% +$184
politics 4% −$19
crypto 3% −$340
finance 1% −$221
economics 1% −$7
culture 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 41% -11.4%
≤30d 73 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 36% -16.9%
≤90d 352 -4.1% -13.3% 61% 45% -13.0%
all 414 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -13.4%
10% -24.1% 33% -21.7%
15% -31.4% 19% -29.2%
20% -38.1% 11% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$50 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$3,398
Realized−$1,631
Unrealized−$607
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses246 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions41
Markets (closed)414 / 456
History coverage409d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $929 $962 +$33 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $222 $334 +$112 (+50%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $204 $206 +$2 (+1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 67¢ $167 $188 +$21 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $148 $158 +$10 (+6%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 34¢ 30¢ $169 $150 −$19 (-11%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $343 $139 −$204 (-59%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $112 $126 +$14 (+12%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $147 $116 −$32 (-21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $54 $87 +$33 (+61%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 80¢ $85 $80 −$5 (-6%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 77¢ $89 $77 −$12 (-13%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 81¢ 76¢ $81 $75 −$5 (-7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 91¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 87¢ 88¢ $52 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $37 $52 +$14 (+38%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 24¢ 25¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 38¢ 24¢ $48 $30 −$18 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $32 $25 −$8 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $132 +$28 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $137 +$86 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $65 +$31 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $47 +$53 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $87 −$82 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $536 +$29 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $131 −$125 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 +$2 +1%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $64 +$12 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $196 +$62 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $138 −$3 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $558 −$135 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $97 +$5 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$6 -51%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $9 +$41 +455%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $54 +$30 +54%
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $839 −$361 -43%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $80 −$70 -87%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $261 +$4 +2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 02 $139 +$28 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,001 −$89 -4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $238 +$12 +5%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $108 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $492 +$57 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $73 +$21 +29%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $120 −$94 -78%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $299 −$71 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $370 −$43 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $901 −$213 -24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $248 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 30 $21 −$14 -65%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $55 +$25 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 15m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 87¢ $8 38m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 87¢ $33 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $199 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 44¢ $9 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 71¢ $14 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 25¢ $3 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $0 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $43 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $3 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $19 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $218 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 96¢ $64 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,398.15 · official $3,398.18 (match) · 2935 history records