Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5de6…d677 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$710 (+3%) realized +$775 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,964
7 days−$5,158
14 days−$4,566
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1,117
world 26% +$2,314
sports 14% +$1,608
other 13% −$1,797
finance 8% −$1,323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 33% -54.3%
≤30d 65 +19.9% +8.5% 38% 38% -11.0%
≤90d 66 +21.1% +9.5% 39% 39% -10.6%
all 66 +21.1% +9.5% 39% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 39% -10.6%
10% -1.0% 36% -19.1%
15% -10.5% 35% -27.0%
20% -19.3% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +50% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$196 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,566
Realized+$775
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage45d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 25¢ $1,044 $750 −$294 (-28%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $387 $595 +$208 (+54%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,677 −$1,482 -88%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $203 +$186 +92%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$232 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$91 +45%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$115 +114%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,379 −$233 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$45 +146%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$35 +344%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $206 −$23 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,670 −$1,270 -76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $76 +$52 +68%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $300 −$64 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 13 $2,283 −$2,283 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $202 +$101 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 +$564 +550%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $200 −$152 -76%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $205 +$628 +307%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $400 +$101 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6,459 +$1,176 +18%
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? Jun 02 $8 $0 -6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $113 −$113 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $391 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $389 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 4h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $294 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $195 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $473 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $572 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $240 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $430 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 2d
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $183 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,566.00 · official $1,566.00 (match) · 250 history records