Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5dde…b538 politics 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$1
world 20% +$6
other 19% $0
economics 13% $0
sports 7% +$6
finance 2% −$3
tech 2% +$3
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 69 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage295d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $87 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $145 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $97 −$2 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $98 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $81 +$6 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 22 $80 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $83 −$4 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $568 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $624 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $568 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $624 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 31 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $31 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $32 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $32 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $93 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $97 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $90 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $53 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $95 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $97 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $97 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $98 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.00 · official $89.00 (match) · 265 history records