Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5dde…a285
weather · 155 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 62
Open positions19
Markets (closed)136 / 155
History coverage65d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$30
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? No 63¢ 64¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? No 65¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 56¢ 35¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+183%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 8? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$4
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $4 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 88¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 65¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 58¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 13¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 38% -15.2%
≤30d 119 +8.3% -2.0% 56% 40% -7.5%
≤90d 136 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 39% -8.9%
all 136 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 39% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -8.9%
10% -15.9% 22% -17.6%
15% -24.0% 17% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.70 · official $64.70 (match) · 416 history records