Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dde…2217 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$372 (-5%) realized −$292 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%42W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$21
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$56
crypto 25% −$175
other 11% −$28
finance 8% −$204
politics 5% +$12
world 3% +$9
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 5 -24.6% -31.8% 60% 40% -4.8%
≤90d 59 -12.6% -20.9% 63% 34% -15.1%
all 71 +34.5% +21.7% 59% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 31% -14.8%
10% +10.0% 20% -22.9%
15% -0.6% 13% -30.4%
20% -10.4% 8% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$41 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses42 / 29
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)71 / 81
History coverage155d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $85 $89 +$5 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+146%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 92¢ 28¢ $46 $14 −$32 (-69%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 36¢ 3¢ $32 $2 −$29 (-92%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 25 $85 +$3 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 02 $45 +$16 +36%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 21 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 14 $27 −$26 -94%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Kayserispor end in a draw? May 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $49 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 04 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 04 $284 +$8 +3%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $18 +$2 +12%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $44 +$6 +12%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 03 $27 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $18 +$2 +14%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 29 $62 +$16 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 28 $126 −$108 -86%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $187 −$15 -8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $60 −$11 -18%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $376 −$150 -40%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $95 +$14 +15%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $112 −$63 -56%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 22 $51 +$67 +133%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 22 $197 +$42 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April? Apr 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 18 $25 +$15 +61%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $63 +$14 +22%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 15 $146 +$4 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 14 $111 +$105 +94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Apr 13 $55 −$38 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $99 −$76 -77%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Apr 09 $81 +$5 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 08 $46 −$17 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 08 $105 +$36 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $320 −$197 -62%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $34 −$33 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $136 +$40 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL No 98¢ $88 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $57 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 17d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 19d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 19d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 19d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $61 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 72¢ $73 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 44¢ $45 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 42d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 42d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Chennai Super Kings 89¢ $7 46d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Chennai Super Kings 89¢ $37 46d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 47d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 47d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 47d
Will Alanyaspor vs. Kayserispor end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $18 47d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Delhi Capitals 6¢ $2 48d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 27¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.42 · official $179.10 (match) · 257 history records