Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5ddd…6144 sports 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$86 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%187W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days+$31
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$10
other 15% −$43
crypto 4% +$10
world 2% −$60
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 57% -10.8%
≤30d 122 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 56% -5.6%
≤90d 149 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -7.7%
all 358 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 52% -12.0%
10% -21.4% 49% -20.5%
15% -29.0% 42% -28.1%
20% -36.0% 36% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses187 / 171
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)358 / 360
History coverage317d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner Team AION 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner Team AION $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $20 +$8 +38%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am Jun 29 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 +$11 +75%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $20 +$17 +84%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4 +$11 +262%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $14 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -94%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $5 +$3 +56%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $8 +$5 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $11 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $5 +$4 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 33¢ $3 1m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY Team AION $1 1h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner SELL Ilbirs eSports 100¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 67¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 77¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner BUY BALU 15¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner BUY BALU $1 3h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner BUY BALU 39¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am SELL Patins da Ferrari 100¢ $9 14h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 57¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 2 Winner BUY Patins da Ferrari 12¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 64¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $16 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 18h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $27 18h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 38¢ $5 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 74¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $37 20h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $20 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 65¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 26¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $17 24h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.