Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5ddd…0014 world 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,471 (+1%) realized +$1,475 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%116W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$983per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$822
other 20% +$1,156
politics 19% −$184
economics 18% +$308
tech 1% +$2,315
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.7% -12.9% 83% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 22 +2.8% -7.0% 91% 18% -9.1%
≤90d 127 +4.9% -5.1% 91% 12% -6.2%
all 127 +4.9% -5.1% 91% 12% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 12% -6.2%
10% -14.2% 7% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 6% -23.3%
20% -30.1% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,053) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$80 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.02 per $1 lost it wins $6.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$2,812
Realized+$1,475
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses116 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)127 / 143
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$983
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,494 $1,505 +$11 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 97¢ 100¢ $685 $704 +$19 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $89 $105 +$16 (+18%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $72 $53 −$19 (-26%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $32 $26 −$6 (-18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 11¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 57¢ 27¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-53%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 48¢ 18¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-63%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$2 (-28%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $475 −$239 -50%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $9,571 +$40 +0%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $278 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,281 +$19 +0%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $4,166 +$34 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $195 +$10 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,588 +$15 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $766 +$11 +2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $8,090 +$185 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $154 +$10 +7%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $134 +$6 +5%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 28 $97 +$8 +8%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $55 +$53 +97%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $249 +$11 +4%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $758 +$29 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $7 +$3 +37%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 24 $822 −$523 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $318 +$16 +5%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 23 $71 +$4 +5%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 18 $886 +$2 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 17 $108 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 16 $2,080 +$75 +4%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any CEO of a publicly-listed US company attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $791 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,900 +$8 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 13 $915 +$5 +1%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 12 $2,752 +$43 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $2,418 +$44 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $72 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $180 +$6 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $145 +$5 +4%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 10 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10? May 09 $363 +$11 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $10 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: April May 09 $586 +$11 +2%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? May 08 $3,708 +$32 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? May 08 $98 +$1 +2%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? May 07 $805 +$3 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6? May 06 $3,337 +$8 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5? May 05 $336 +$4 +1%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 04 $1,500 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 99¢ $21 52m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 99¢ $99 52m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 98¢ $30 53m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 98¢ $29 53m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 97¢ $29 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 13h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 13h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $299 17h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 95¢ $29 20h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 97¢ $29 21h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 23h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 26h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 28h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 100¢ $100 28h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 100¢ $85 28h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 100¢ $9 28h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 100¢ $50 28h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 99¢ $10 28h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 32h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 41h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 42h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 42h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 43h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,812.04 · official $2,812.04 (match) · 3500 history records