Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5ddb…8cb3 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%44W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$5
crypto 11% +$2
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.3% -9.3% 81% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses44 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage544d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $83 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 04 $66 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $6,004 −$6 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 01 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 24-31? Feb 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 62d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $64 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $56 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 149d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $66 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 242d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $50 242d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $37 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 333d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 365d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.93 · official $82.93 (match) · 117 history records