Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dda…a6a1 crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%104W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day104.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 56% -12.3%
≤30d 179 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 56% -12.3%
≤90d 179 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 56% -12.3%
all 179 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 56% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 56% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 55% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 34% -28.4%
20% -35.0% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses104 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day104.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records