Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5dd9…1d0d sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-7%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$143
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -40.7% -46.4% 30% 30% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 30% -16.4%
10% -51.5% 30% -24.4%
15% -56.2% 20% -31.7%
20% -60.5% 20% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage544d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 05 $70 +$20 +28%
Sabres vs. Penguins Nov 27 $49 +$46 +92%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Islanders vs. Capitals Oct 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Reds vs. Nationals Jul 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $1,541 −$1 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Dec 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Dec 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 1h
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $70 204d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 52¢ $49 210d
Raptors vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 50¢ $49 217d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 43¢ $38 224d
Islanders vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 68¢ $60 235d
Reds vs. Nationals BUY Nationals 44¢ $4 336d
Thunder vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 58¢ $7 532d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $28 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $66 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $139 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $234 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $22 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $48 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $161 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $232 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $41 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $26 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $36 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $103 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $206 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $141 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $59 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $15 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $185 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $33 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $34 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $155 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $118 540d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $104 540d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.40 · official $31.40 (match) · 43 history records