Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dd2…d822 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$2
sports 23% $0
other 21% −$1
politics 18% −$1
culture 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 0% -8.7%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage298d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $71 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 16 $24 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Sep 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 14 $9 $0 -5%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $8 $0 -4%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $1 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $15 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $18 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $24 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $15 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $38 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $16 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $14 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $37 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $37 30d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 279d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $29 279d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $29 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 279d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 279d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.48 · official $38.48 (match) · 118 history records