Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dd0…9192 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$179 (-2%) realized +$285 · open −$464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$205est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$235
other 9% +$8
politics 2% −$176
economics 2% −$4
world 2% −$99
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 15% -9.4%
≤30d 32 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 32 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 9% -9.9%
all 32 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 9% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 6% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$464
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$205
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage17d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ 28¢ $500 $311 −$189 (-38%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 10¢ 1¢ $200 $24 −$176 (-88%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $200 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $200 +$3 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $200 +$3 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $181 +$6 +3%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $200 +$119 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$26 +13%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +3%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $200 +$3 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $200 +$10 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $81 +$4 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $200 +$5 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $200 +$5 +3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $200 +$7 +4%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $64 +$1 +1%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $200 +$7 +3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Chiefs Esports Club (BO1) - Asia P Jun 08 $173 +$2 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $500 −$13 -3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $500 +$7 +1%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $742 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $92 −$7 -7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $363 +$8 +2%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $4 $0 +4%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 02 $402 −$7 -2%
Birmingham: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 01 $500 −$9 -2%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 01 $500 −$21 -4%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 01 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $67 0m
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 10¢ $200 45m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $196 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $199 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 54¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $200 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 42¢ $40 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $101 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $200 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $200 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $55 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $40 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 38¢ $91 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $200 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $63 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $4 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $19 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $6 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $15 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $66 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.84 · official $402.84 (match) · 175 history records